Investor Behavior
Markets
+2
Dec 6, 2025
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5 min read
On Doing the Right Thing
Against all odds, 2025 is almost history. And the lesson? It's always the right time to do the right thing—never a better or worse moment. That simple truth guided me through April's chaos, when Jason Zweig at The Wall Street Journal asked me what investors should do. The answer: prioritize doing no harm, manage regret risk, don't panic into something worse. Life must go on, even in uncertainty. That was the work this year. It will be again in 2026.
Markets
+2
Nov 8, 2025
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11 min read
“Up and to the Right” + Advanced Tax Strategies
People love to say "stocks go up and to the right over the long run" like it's a law of physics. It's not. The U.S. stock market's 150-year run required exceptional circumstances—no foreign occupation, no revolution, stable institutions, and relentless value creation. Eleven other markets literally disappeared in the 20th century. For prices to rise, "steady" isn't enough. Businesses must generate more value, more revenue, greater efficiency, more cash—every decade. A lot has to go right. We shouldn't take any of it for granted. Plus: my conversation with Brent Sullivan on tax alpha strategies and why tax comes after risk, return, and diversification—not before.
Markets
+2
Oct 11, 2025
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7 min read
Fear Moves Markets. Keep It From Moving You.
Risk is structured and manageable—we measure it, bear it, diversify it, or hedge it. Fear is a mess. It's psychological, contagious, and arational. Risk doesn't keep you up at night. Fear does. The good news: words and scenarios aren't dangerous, they're rehearsal. We can pre-think contingencies, set simple rules for stress, and keep fear from scheduling our actions. My conversation with Rob Arnott and Ed McQuarrie explores why fear—not risk—explains asset pricing, and how to put fear where it belongs.
Markets
+1
May 10, 2025
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6 min read
Marking the Passage of Time with Gratitude
April was a beast—Liberation Day on April 2, suspension by April 9. Markets recovered fast, but we're in the Great Suspension now, waiting to see what happens next. Not rushing to conclusions probably commands a premium right now. Meanwhile, May 5th marks TCM's two-year anniversary and the launch of TREUSSARD TALKS. First guest: Alec Crawford, my first boss during the 2008 crisis. His parting wisdom: "A lot of crazy stuff is gonna happen. Focus on the long term. Focus on what you can control. Do what you can and stay safe."
Markets
+2
Apr 26, 2025
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13 min read
A Little Perspective Goes a Long Way
April was brutal—stock swings, dollar falling, Treasury yields spiking. People worry American Exceptionalism is melting away. But look at the data: Treasury yields are elevated, sure, around the 75th percentile since 2000, not off the charts. The dollar weakened but it's not broken—Euro at 1.15 isn't crazy, Yen at 140 is a drop from 160 but still reasonable. The U.S. economy entered 2025 in exceptional shape. Yes, headlines suggest tectonic shifts. The numbers tell a more nuanced story—we're still within historical ranges. This is a time for extreme thinking, not extreme actions. Understand your exposures now.
Markets
+2
Apr 12, 2025
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12 min read
Good Grief
April 2, 2025 belongs to the list of days we'll remember—Berlin Wall, 9/11, Lehman, Brexit. Tariffs imposed, markets cratered, then the single best day since October 2008 (which tells you something). We're on watch for whether a tsunami follows the earthquake. Here's what helps: a regret pyramid—exhaust low-regret actions before high-regret ones. Don't be surprised if stocks swing up or down 10-15% over the next month. That's context so you don't overreact to every 3-5% day. Life must go on, even now. The main event is now U.S. versus China. Let's hope we can stick the landing.
Risk
+2
Feb 8, 2025
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7 min read
It’s All (No) Fun and Games
What does the science of making decisions under uncertainty teach us about this moment? There are two types of uncertainty: natural (comets fall from the sky) and human-made (we create new chapters of history books). Right now we're playing a huge game of "will we or won't we?" around tariffs. Here's what matters: greater uncertainty causes you to settle for less—functionally similar to higher interest rates cooling the economy. When uncertainty goes from plus-or-minus $250 to plus-or-minus $750, people settle for $660 instead of $970. That's why amping up uncertainty is an obvious negotiating tactic. Watch for this behavior in yourself and don't let it override how you approach life.
