Valuations
Markets
+1
Jan 17, 2026
•
8 min read
Life Is Full of Hard Choices
People often say "there is no alternative" to stocks. But the US equity market is trading at its second-highest valuation in 145 years—only the Tech Bubble was pricier. History shows that starting from extreme valuations compresses future returns, sometimes for a decade. And T-bills? Barely breaking even after taxes and inflation. Both options present uneasy trade-offs. But here's the thing: there's always a choice to make. That's far more productive than pretending there isn't one. Plus: my conversation with Devin Shanthikumar on why sell-side analysts "speak in two tongues" and how AI is changing security analysis.
