Archive
Markets
+1
May 10, 2025
•
6 min read
Marking the Passage of Time with Gratitude
April was a beast—Liberation Day on April 2, suspension by April 9. Markets recovered fast, but we're in the Great Suspension now, waiting to see what happens next. Not rushing to conclusions probably commands a premium right now. Meanwhile, May 5th marks TCM's two-year anniversary and the launch of TREUSSARD TALKS. First guest: Alec Crawford, my first boss during the 2008 crisis. His parting wisdom: "A lot of crazy stuff is gonna happen. Focus on the long term. Focus on what you can control. Do what you can and stay safe."
Markets
+2
Apr 26, 2025
•
13 min read
A Little Perspective Goes a Long Way
April was brutal—stock swings, dollar falling, Treasury yields spiking. People worry American Exceptionalism is melting away. But look at the data: Treasury yields are elevated, sure, around the 75th percentile since 2000, not off the charts. The dollar weakened but it's not broken—Euro at 1.15 isn't crazy, Yen at 140 is a drop from 160 but still reasonable. The U.S. economy entered 2025 in exceptional shape. Yes, headlines suggest tectonic shifts. The numbers tell a more nuanced story—we're still within historical ranges. This is a time for extreme thinking, not extreme actions. Understand your exposures now.
Markets
+2
Apr 12, 2025
•
12 min read
Good Grief
April 2, 2025 belongs to the list of days we'll remember—Berlin Wall, 9/11, Lehman, Brexit. Tariffs imposed, markets cratered, then the single best day since October 2008 (which tells you something). We're on watch for whether a tsunami follows the earthquake. Here's what helps: a regret pyramid—exhaust low-regret actions before high-regret ones. Don't be surprised if stocks swing up or down 10-15% over the next month. That's context so you don't overreact to every 3-5% day. Life must go on, even now. The main event is now U.S. versus China. Let's hope we can stick the landing.
Markets
+2
Mar 29, 2025
•
11 min read
Hey Boss, Have We Tried Boiling the Frog Instead?
Tariffs make sense for small countries with weak armies—they internalize the defense cost of importing valuable stuff that makes you a target. But the US? We have the strongest military on Earth. We created global free trade by providing cheap military protection to the world. Globalization created winners and losers here, and instead of taxing the winners to help the losers, we decided tariffs were the answer. Economic policy uncertainty is now at 2008-crisis levels. But high yield spreads are 3%, not 20%. So far, this is a tremor, not an earthquake. The real question: how did the last few weeks feel to you?
Risk
+2
Feb 8, 2025
•
7 min read
It’s All (No) Fun and Games
What does the science of making decisions under uncertainty teach us about this moment? There are two types of uncertainty: natural (comets fall from the sky) and human-made (we create new chapters of history books). Right now we're playing a huge game of "will we or won't we?" around tariffs. Here's what matters: greater uncertainty causes you to settle for less—functionally similar to higher interest rates cooling the economy. When uncertainty goes from plus-or-minus $250 to plus-or-minus $750, people settle for $660 instead of $970. That's why amping up uncertainty is an obvious negotiating tactic. Watch for this behavior in yourself and don't let it override how you approach life.
Markets
+2
Feb 1, 2025
•
4 min read
The Best of "Wealth, Empowered" Before It Had a Name
I moved my newsletter to Beehiiv and gave it a formal identity: WEALTH, EMPOWERED. My mission is to empower you when it comes to your wealth and understanding of markets. Before the platform change, I wrote every article on my website. Here are 2024's highlights: a framework for making decisions when the future is unknown (Seeing Around Corners), the three fundamentals of money management built over 20 years (An iOS), escaping the wealth management industrial complex (Is This What You Thought It Would Be), bare-minimum investment homework for beginners, being a liquidity provider when markets dry up (Be Like Water), and why governance might be the eighth wonder of the world.
