Economics
Risk
+1
Feb 28, 2026
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10 min read
Gradually and Then Suddenly
Our story begins in the late 1990s. When software started ruling the world. We're now in the middle of what's being called the "AI Scare Trade" or SaaSpocalypse. Software stocks are down. Private equity down. Private credit down. This is how we got here. And what you might want to be thinking about.
Markets
+2
Jan 31, 2026
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12 min read
Inflation, Markets, and Precarity in America
For a brief window, you could earn 5% on Treasury bills and actually build wealth after taxes and inflation. That's over. Now people are back to saying "there is no alternative to stocks"—but history tells a different story. In this piece: TIPS as an inflation hedge, what really happened to stocks in the 1970s (spoiler: down 50%+ in real terms), and my conversation with Mike Green on passive investing's endgame and why the poverty line might actually be $140,000, not $40,000.
Markets
+1
Dec 20, 2025
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5 min read
The Future Is Unwritten
Looking back at 2025, I'm reminded that the strongest bull markets are built on diminishing bad news, not good news. But what about looking forward? I sat down with Paul Solman—50 years explaining economics to America, eight Emmys, five Peabodys—and he cut to the chase: "It's a stochastic universe. I have no idea what's gonna happen next. So you come up with strategies that protect you as best you can." Then he offered something deeper: be here now, small acts of kindness, there's more good in the world than bad. The future is unwritten. Grab a pen.
Markets
+2
Aug 30, 2025
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5 min read
History, Markets, and Civility with David Kotok
David Kotok has studied hundreds of years of economic history, and here's his big takeaway: we're transitioning from pandemic economics to war finance. Historically, that regime shift raises baseline interest rates and makes inflation more persistent. Defense-driven innovation might help later, but it's uncertain. The world we're used to investing in might be radically different now. Plus: why Churchill was right about learning from the past, and why people like David—who make time for others out of pure generosity and commitment to civility—remind me I'm the luckiest person alive.
Markets
+2
Aug 2, 2025
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12 min read
Apres Nous, Le Deluge
The Europe-U.S. "trade deal" isn't really about trade. It's Europe being pragmatic—giving on trade terms to get military support against Russia. They're buying American weaponry with strong Euros and opening markets to U.S. goods in exchange for pressure on Putin. It's protection money, essentially. Europe is buying time against electoral cycles and a tired regime sending young men to die. Meanwhile, stock markets are hitting new highs, which shows you really don't know what happens next. This wealth-management thing is centrally about managing risk and minimizing regrets. Stress-testing your comfort with the disconnect between market strength and exposed fault lines doesn't seem like a bad idea right now.
Markets
+2
Mar 29, 2025
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11 min read
Hey Boss, Have We Tried Boiling the Frog Instead?
Tariffs make sense for small countries with weak armies—they internalize the defense cost of importing valuable stuff that makes you a target. But the US? We have the strongest military on Earth. We created global free trade by providing cheap military protection to the world. Globalization created winners and losers here, and instead of taxing the winners to help the losers, we decided tariffs were the answer. Economic policy uncertainty is now at 2008-crisis levels. But high yield spreads are 3%, not 20%. So far, this is a tremor, not an earthquake. The real question: how did the last few weeks feel to you?
Risk
+2
Feb 8, 2025
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7 min read
It’s All (No) Fun and Games
What does the science of making decisions under uncertainty teach us about this moment? There are two types of uncertainty: natural (comets fall from the sky) and human-made (we create new chapters of history books). Right now we're playing a huge game of "will we or won't we?" around tariffs. Here's what matters: greater uncertainty causes you to settle for less—functionally similar to higher interest rates cooling the economy. When uncertainty goes from plus-or-minus $250 to plus-or-minus $750, people settle for $660 instead of $970. That's why amping up uncertainty is an obvious negotiating tactic. Watch for this behavior in yourself and don't let it override how you approach life.
